What xG and xA Actually Mean
Think of xG as a way to rate every shot a player takes. It gives a number between 0 and 1 based on how likely that shot was to score, taking into account things like where the player was on the pitch, the angle to goal, and how the ball got to them. When you add up a player's xG over several games, you get a clear picture of the kind of chances they're getting, regardless of whether they finished them or not.
xA does something similar, but for passes that lead to shots. It measures how good a chance that pass created for a teammate, again on that 0 to 1 scale. Just like when you place bets on online casinos that accept cryptocurrency , you evaluate the odds and the expected value of each bet before you commit. A perfectly weighted through ball into the box scores high, while a hopeful long ball over the top scores low.
Put xG and xA together, and you have xGI, which shows a player's total threat in attack. The beauty of these stats is that they cut out the luck factor - no more getting fooled by a player who scores from a fluke deflection or misses a sitter.
Where to Find These Stats
The easiest place to start is the official FPL website, where the players’ statistics , including xG, xA, and xGI, can be accessed from the "Transfers" page and the "Stats" page. For more detail, sites like Understat let you see xG on charts over time, showing if a player's form is trending up or down, and FBref breaks everything down per 90 minutes to account for playing time.
Always check these alongside minutes played and team context. A cheap midfielder with strong xA per 90 in a high-possession side? That's gold for your bench.
Spotting Value Before Price Rises
The real power of xG and xA shows up when you spot players who get better chances than their goals and assists show. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has strong xG and xA numbers even with Everton struggling, and at £5.1m, he’s still the catch of smart managers who bought in cheap before his price rises. You want those moments in which you can grab underpriced players when there’s still a chance.
Pick midfielders under £5.5m who average 0.4 or more xG + xA every 90 minutes. For forwards, choose ones hitting 0.6 per 90, but only in teams making over 2.0 xG as a squad per game. Fixtures play a big part too; stack your team with these assets before a run of games against defenses that concede plenty of chances.
Building Your Team Around xG and xA
Start building your team from the back with defenders like Michael Keane or Tyrick Mitchell, who offer bonus upside beyond clean sheets. Midfield depth needs a reliable 0.3 xGI per 90 to cover rotations, freeing budget for premiums hitting 0.7+ like Haaland in his Premier League chance-goldmine team. Prioritize strikers in high team xG setups.
Make it a habit: after each gameweek, review xG tables for gaps between stats and returns, then plan transfers around upcoming fixtures. For your chip strategies, use the Wildcard to bring in players who are expected to create or score a lot of goals based on xGI stats. Put the captain's armband on players with the highest xG in easy fixtures, and skip the popular choice if the numbers favor someone else.
Common Mistakes and Fixes
A common mistake is selling a player right after one bad game where they had a good chance, like 1.0 xG, but didn't score; instead, look at their stats over the last four games. Another mistake is focusing only on a player's own xG without checking if their team creates many chances overall. If the team doesn't make good opportunities, the player's xG won't lead to points, so always check the team's stats first.
Also, don't drop players who make assists just to get goalscorers, because assists add up to a lot of points. When a player stops scoring for a while, keep them if their xG and xA numbers are still good - those chances will turn into points soon. Avoid these errors, and your team will handle poor runs of form much better than the average teams.