From Loser to Data King: How to Exploit Stats
As briefly explained in the introduction, fantasy football has evolved drastically, turning from a simple fun game to play with your friends to new opportunities that can allow the best of the best to win huge prizes and even earn a place working inside the football world at some of the world’s best clubs.
But, as we are only talking about how to exploit fantasy football and become the best in your league, we’ll just stick to the basics by showing the best exploits that can win you leagues.
Thanks to the evolution of the football landscape and the amount of data made available by official leagues or platforms like fbref , which provide users with in-depth statistics for free, it’s easier than ever to know which players are performing better and which must be left out.
However, most of the data provided is either not useful or doesn’t portray the players’ performance correctly, therefore it’s important to know which statistics make a clear difference.
Starting with the most important statistics in the modern football landscape, both expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) remain at the top, being the best indicators of a player’s performance and the best way to know if a player is worth signing for a matchday.
However, players on the weaker sides may not have high xG or xA as their teams may not reach the oppositions goal with as much frequency as top teams would. As a result, the other best statistics to be exploited are shots in the box, big chances created and touches in the final third, as it will guarantee that a player is performing well, guaranteeing vital points which, at the end of the league, can make a big difference.
Riding the Wave with Player Form
Although they may seem the same, player stats and player form are not the same thing. A player could have great overall stats, but it may be due to a one-off performance that breaks the bank, that’s why it’s important to check player form after looking at each player’s stats.
To take advantage of player form, things must be taken into consideration to get the best bargains in fantasy football. Maybe a player has ended the game with no goals or assists, but he has created a great bunch of high-quality chances that have ended in the back of the net.
Essentially, fantasy football sites tend to increase player value based on performance, even if their point system is purely based on statistics . To ride the wave and become the best manager in your league, take a close look at performance, fixture run and other important signs, if a player looks sharp and confident then it may be good to try him out.
From FPL to the Real World: How to Get the Best Value Free Bets
We have discussed how in-depth fantasy football gameplay is essential if you want to become one of the world’s best managers, but statistical analysis and research can be used on many other areas, making your fantasy football experience better and more diverse.
When it comes to placing wagers, the process of success is very similar to that of fantasy football: finding the best exploits and riding the wave before everyone else notices, getting the biggest earnings possible.
To do so, there are many low-risk high reward strategies that are worth giving a try. Essentially, the best way to guarantee results would be to intelligently use value free bets to your advantage. On many occasions, bookmakers make promotions where you can get a specific amount of money if you meet some simple conditions.
The advantage fantasy football players have to regular bettors is that they have done their research before and can apply very similar strategies to those adopted when playing fantasy football.
However, you must do these value-free bets with as much precision as your fantasy football teams, as, by doing so, it’s much more probable to get a favorable result without putting your own money at stake, and if you lose that bet you haven’t lost any “real” money.
The best way to use your knowledge on both fantasy football and bets would be to crunch all the numbers up, choose your desired fantasy football squad and, only then, place your bets based on your fantasy football choices, guaranteeing a great result.
From Fantasy Football to a Statistical Mastermind
Fantasy Football doesn’t reward people who get lucky, it rewards individuals who are consistently taking time from their day to analyze data and statistics carefully and portray their knowledge on the pitch.
The good thing is, if you decide to take your talents to the next level and become a true sports analyst and an experienced bettor, you don’t have to change your framework, as it’s essentially the same, just try to be careful of where you place your bets and make the best out of your free value bets.
Whether you decide to take the step or not, it’s clear that without data and statistical exploits Fantasy Football would be much more different, and far less rewarding, than it is.