The Structural Problem with FPL Data as a Predictor
FPL scoring is heavily influenced by club structure, role clarity and volume of opportunities within well-drilled systems.
Players benefit from repeatable patterns, dominant possession and stable tactical instructions that allow them to accumulate points steadily over time. International football operates differently.
Teams have limited preparation time, tactical cohesion is lower and matches are often decided by individual actions rather than sustained dominance.
In that context, players who can take responsibility, improvise and deliver decisive moments become far more valuable than those who rely on system-driven output.
This structural contrast means that a player’s FPL performance can often be a poor reflection of how influential they will operate at a World Cup.
The Marmoush Paradox: Club Struggles, International Responsibility
Omar Marmoush’s season at Manchester City has been defined by limited opportunities and rotational usage, which has significantly reduced his FPL appeal.
He operates as a complementary option rather than a focal point, often entering matches late and with restricted influence. That role naturally limits his FPL output.
By contrast, his situation is entirely different with Egypt. Marmoush is a primary attacking outlet, given the freedom to carry the ball, take shots and drive transitions.
His international performances during qualification underline that importance, which is why he is expected to be a popular option in goalscoring markets this summer.
Supporting Cases: Reijnders and De Cuyper as Role-Shift Players
The same principle applies to players whose FPL limitations are rooted in tactical roles rather than ability.
Tijjani Reijnders has delivered modest FPL returns because his club role prioritises structure, ball progression and positional discipline over direct goal involvement.
He is expected to operate with greater attacking licence for the Netherlands, dictating tempo and contributing more directly in the final third.
That expanded role can significantly increase his influence this summer, even if it has not translated into FPL points over the season.
Maxim De Cuyper presents a similar case from a different position. Defensive rotations and system discipline have limited his fantasy ceiling at club level, but Belgium will deploy him in a more advanced wing-back role.
That shift increases his attacking involvement, particularly through crossing and late runs into the box, which are often decisive in tournament football.
Historically, World Cups have elevated attacking full-backs, and De Cuyper fits that profile more closely than his FPL output suggests.
The Kudus Factor: Injury Context Over Fantasy Form
Mohammed Kudus is the most important reminder of FPL’s limitations. His season has been disrupted by injuries and inconsistent club usage, resulting in underwhelming fantasy returns.
Recent fitness concerns, including a hamstring issue, have raised questions about his availability heading into the World Cup. Medical advice pointed towards surgery as a long-term solution, but Kudus has deliberately chosen a different path.
He has opted against surgery in favour of rehabilitation, with a clear focus on being fit for the tournament. This decision reflects both his importance to Ghana and the national team’s determination to have him available this summer.
Kudus is a central attacking force for Ghana, given the freedom to drift across the front line, carry possession and create chances. That role is far more expansive than what he has experienced at club level this season.
His limited FPL output therefore says more about circumstance than ability, and if he regains full fitness, he has the profile to be one of the most influential players in the tournament.
Why World Cup Football Rewards Different Profiles
The broader lesson is that World Cup football rewards players who can deliver decisive moments in short timeframes rather than those who accumulate steady returns over long periods.
FPL leaders often benefit from consistency within stable systems, but those advantages do not always translate to international tournaments, where unpredictability, pressure and tactical variation play a much larger role.
Players who are underutilised at club level can become central figures for their national teams, while those thriving in structured environments may find it harder to replicate that output without the same support systems.
For bettors looking to identify breakout stars this summer, the focus should shift away from fantasy output and towards international roles, tactical freedom and individual responsibility.